Choose game 1 or 2 and explain why.

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Consider 2 games

Game 1: 

$1 million with probabilty = 1.0

Game 2:

$5 million = .1

$1 million = .89

$0= .01

Choose game 1 or 2 and explain why.

(Maurice) allais’ paradox (1953)

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We have been provided with the information about two game with its relevant probabelity as follow

Game 1: 

$1 million with probabilty = 1.0

Game 2:

$5 million = .1

$1 million = .89

$0= .01

 

Now we will find out the figure with the relevant amount as follow

  Game 1  
Gain Probabelity Net
Gain
(A) (B) (A)*(B)
1,000,000 1 1000000

 

Expected out come of game -1 is $ 1,000,000

  Game 2  
Gain Probabelity Net
Gain
(A) (B) (A)*(B)
5,000,000 0.1 500000
1,000,000 0.89 890000
Total   1390000

 

Expected out come of game -1 is $ 1,390,000

Conclusion : You should  choose game -2 because Expected outcome of game -2 is more then game -1

 

 

 

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